Holocene vegetation and climate change in southern New Zealand: Linkages between forest composition and quantitative surface moisture reconstructions from an ombrogenous bog

This paper presents a Holocene pollen record from an ombrotrophic bog in Southland, New Zealand, together with multiproxy data (testate amoebae, peat humification and plant macrofossils) from the same core to establish an independent semiquantitative record of peatland surface moisture. Linkages between reconstructed peatland surface moisture and regional forest composition are investigated using redundancy analysis of the forest pollen data constrained with predicted bog water-table depths. Over 32% of the pollen data variance can be explained by surface moisture changes in the bog, suggesting a common cause of water-table and regional vegetation change. Water tables were higher during the early to mid-Holocene when the forest was dominated by podocarp taxa. Water tables lowered after about 3300 cal. yr BP coevally with the expansion of Nothofagus species, culminating with the dominance of Nothofagus subgenus Fuscospora in the past 1200 cal. yr BP. This is in apparent opposition to the warm/dry to cool/wet trend suggested by subjective interpretation of pollen data alone, from this and other studies. We suggest that during the late Holocene, drier summers associated with shifts in solar insolation caused reduced surface wetness and summer humidity, which together with a trend to cooler winters, apparently favoured the regeneration of Nothofagus species. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.