Mixed RP/SP models incorporating interaction effects -: Modelling new suburban train services in Cagliari

In order to analyse the impact of a new train service in Cagliari (Italy) a databank including information from a revealed preference (RP) and a stated preference (SP) survey was set up. The RP data concern choice between car, bus and train; the SP data consider the binary choice between a new train service (quicker, more frequent, with a lower fare and more stations than the current one) and the alternative currently chosen by car and bus users. Logit models allowing for correlation among RP alternatives were estimated for this mixed RP/SP data set using the artificial tree structure method. The analysis included level-of-service variables measured with an unusually high level of precision, latent or second order variables (such as comfort), inertia and interaction variables. Different specifications of the utility function were tested, including the expenditure rate model, and the effects of these specifications on modelling results are highlighted. Our results show that for a population mainly composed of fixed income workers, the expenditure rate model is superior to the traditional wage rate model, yielding lower and more significant subjective values of time. Moreover, we found that the non-linear specifications appear to be more suitable as not only better model results were obtained, but also the real distribution of the error terms was revealed (i.e. highlighting correlation among public transport options).