World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 19181999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.