The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity

This paper presents an econometric analysis of land-cover change in western Honduras. Ground-truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996, net forest regrowth occurred in the 1015 km(2) study region. While some forest regrowth can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of forest regrowth greatly exceeds that of previously clear-cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987 and 1996. Thus, the observed land-cover changes most likely represent a complex mosaic of changing land-use patterns across time and space. Using satellite imagery from 1987, 1991 and 1996, we estimate a series of models, including binary probit models for each date, and a random-effects probit model using panel techniques. We also experiment with spatial sampling schemes designed to reduce residual spatial autocorrelation, and qualitatively compare the impact of spatial sampling on model accuracy. Lastly, we find that changes in relative prices, infrastructure improvement, and topography are all significantly related to changing land-cover patterns. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.