Uncertainties in the role of land vegetation in the carbon cycle

Since the late 1950s the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere has been increasing by around 0.5-3 ppm per year. Understanding of carbon sinks is vital to understanding this trend and its future behaviour. Here we examine some of the factors which may affect the proportion of anthropogenic CO2 ending up in the atmosphere in the present and in the future, and variability in the CO2 increase from one year to another. We also examine the evidence for the potential of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks to take up or release CO2. In some cases, a careful re-examination of the research methods used to deduce present and future feedbacks may be necessary. The most advanced technology and the most complex models do not necessarily produce reliable results. They should be carefully checked against a general background knowledge of ecological processes before their results are accepted. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.