Functional nonparametric model for time series: a fractal approach for dimension reduction

In this paper we propose a functional nonparametric model for time series prediction. The originality of this model consists in using as predictor a continuous set of past values. This time series problem is presented in the general framework of regression estimation from dependent samples with regressor valued in some infinite dimensional semi-normed vectorial space. The curse of dimensionality induced by our approach is overridden by means of fractal dimension considerations. We give asymptotics for a kernel type nonparametric predictor linking the rates of convergence with the fractal dimension of the functional process. Finally, our method has been implemented and applied to some electricity consumption data.