Neural network modelling of coastal algal blooms

An artificial neural network (ANN), a data driven modelling approach, is proposed to predict the algal bloom dynamics of the coastal waters of Hong Kong. The commonly used back-propagation learning algorithm is employed for training the ANN. The modeling is based on (a) comprehensive biweekly water quality data at Tolo Harbour (1982-2000); and (b) 4-year set of weekly phytoplankton abundance data at Lamina Island (1996-2000). Algal biomass is represented as chlorophyll-a and cell concentration of Skeletonema at the two locations, respectively. Analysis of a large number of scenarios shows that the best agreement with observations is obtained by using merely the time-lagged algal dynamics as the network input. In contrast to previous findings with more complicated neural networks of algal blooms in freshwater systems, the present work suggests the algal concentration in the eutrophic sub-tropical coastal water is mainly dependent on the antecedent algal concentrations in the previous 1-2 weeks. This finding is also supported by an interpretation of the neural networks' weights. Through a systematic analysis of network performance, it is shown that previous reports of predictability of algal dynamics by ANN are erroneous in that 'future data' have been used to drive the network prediction. In addition, a novel real time forecast of coastal algal blooms based on weekly data at Lamina is presented. Our study shows that an ANN model with a small number of input variables is able to capture trends of algal dynamics, but data with a minimum sampling interval of 1 week is necessary. However, the sufficiency of the weekly sampling for real time predictions using ANN models needs to be further evaluated against longer weekly data sets as they become available. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.