Arctic Ocean variability derived from historical observations

[1] This study has been motivated by reports of extra ordinary change in the Arctic Ocean observed in recent decades. Most of these observations are based on synoptic measurements, while evaluation of anomalies requires an understanding of the underlying long-term variability. Historical climatologies give reference means, and while these datasets are a reliable source of the mean Atlantic Layer temperature, they significantly underestimate variability. Using historical data, we calculated statistical parameters for selected Arctic Ocean regions. They demonstrate a high level of Atlantic Layer temperature variability in the Nansen Basin and sea-surface salinity fluctuations on the Siberian shelf and the Amundsen Basin. These estimates suggest strong limitations on our ability to define amplitudes of anomalies by comparing recent synoptic measurements with climatologies, especially for regions characterized by strong variability.