A simulation study of the implications of age-reading errors for stock assessment and management advice

Catch-at-age data are a crucial input to many stock assessments, so errors in age determination could have an adverse effect on the quality of the stock assessment and on the scientific advice based on that assessment. The results of simulation studies presented in this study are intended to quantify the effects of age-reading errors on the perception of stock trends and short-term management advice. The study is based on Eastern Baltic cod, in which problems with consistent interpretation of otolith structures result in the catch-at-age data being particularly problematic. The results indicate a clear distinction between the performance of the assessment, and the performance of catch forecasts and advice based on that assessment. The ageing error affected the absolute level of estimates of fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass from stock assessments, although overall trends are similar, and general conclusions about the state of the stock are likely to be broadly correct. Greater problems arose in catch forecasts and advice, for which ageing error led to discrepancies between the required and the effective fishing mortality, and a general tendency for ageing error to lead to advice on Total Allowable Catch that would be too optimistic and, therefore, less effective for stock conservation. (C) 2003 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.