期刊
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN MEDICINE
卷 28, 期 1, 页码 1-25出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/S0933-3657(03)00033-2
关键词
artificial neural networks; Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD); censorship; cohort study; proportional hazards; Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI)
A Bayesian framework is introduced to carry out Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) in feedforward neural networks to model censored data. A procedure to identify and interpret the prognostic group allocation is also described. These methodologies are applied to 1616 records routinely collected at Christie Hospital, in a monthly cohort study with 5-year follow-up. Two cohort studies are presented, for low- and high-risk patients allocated by standard clinical staging. The results of contrasting the Partial Logistic Artificial Neural Network (PLANN)-ARD model with the proportional hazards model are that the two are consistent, but the neural network may be more specific in the allocation of patients into prognostic groups. With automatic model selection, the regularised neural network is more conservative than the default stepwise forward selection procedure implemented by SPSS with the Akaike Information Criterion. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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