期刊
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
卷 76, 期 2, 页码 399-413出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/S0308-521X(02)00079-3
关键词
decision analysis; whole-farm stochastic budgeting; Monte Carlo simulation; real option
Stochastic budgeting is used to simulate the business and financial risk and the performance over a 6-year planning horizon on a Norwegian dairy farm. A major difficulty with stochastic whole-farm budgeting lies in identifying and measuring dependency relationships between stochastic variables. Some methods to account for these stochastic dependencies are illustrated. The financial feasibility of different investment and management strategies is evaluated. In contrast with earlier studies with stochastic farm budgeting, the option aspect is included in the analysis. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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