Crop yield assessment from remote sensing

Monitoring crop condition and production estimates at the state and county level is of great interest to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture conducts field interviews with sampled farm operators and obtains crop cuttings to make crop yield estimates at regional and state levels. NASS needs supplemental spatial data that provides timely information on crop condition and potential yields. In this research, the crop model EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was adapted for simulations at regional scales. Satellite remotely sensed data provide a real-time assessment of the magnitude and variation of crop condition parameters, and this study investigates the use of these parameters as an input to a crop growth model. This investigation was conducted in the semi-arid region of North Dakota in the southeastern part of the state. The primary objective was to evaluate a method of integrating parameters retrieved from satellite imagery in a crop growth model to simulate spring wheat yields at the sub-county and county levels. The input parameters derived from remotely sensed data provided spatial integrity, as well as a real-time calibration of model simulated parameters during the season, to ensure that the modeled and observed conditions agree. A radiative transfer model, SAIL (Scattered by Arbitrary Inclined Leaves), provided the link between the satellite data and crop model. The model parameters were simulated in a geographic information system grid, which was the platform for aggregating yields at local and regional scales. A model calibration was performed to initialize the model parameters. This calibration was performed using Landsat data over three southeast counties in North Dakota. The model was then used to simulate crop yields for the state of North Dakota with inputs derived from NOAA AVHRR data. The calibration and the state level simulations are compared with spring wheat yields reported by NASS objective yield surveys.