期刊
MARKETING SCIENCE
卷 22, 期 3, 页码 329-354出版社
INST OPERATIONS RESEARCH MANAGEMENT SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1287/mksc.22.3.329.17740
关键词
dynamic simultaneous equations modeling; international release strategies; entertainment marketing; motion picture distribution and exhibition; channel management
类别
We develop an econometric model to study a setting in which a new product is launched first in its domestic market and only at a later stage in foreign markets, and where the product's performance (demand) and availability (supply) are highly interdependent over time within and across markets. Integrating literature on international diffusion, success-breeds-success trends, and the theatrical motion picture industry-the focus of the empirical analysis-we develop a dynamic simultanenous-equations model of the drivers and interrelationship of the behavior of consumers (audiences) and retailers (exhibitors). Our findings emphasize the importance of considering the endogeneity and simultaneity of audience and exhibitor behavior, and challenge conventional wisdom on the determinants of box office performance (which is predominantly based on modeling frameworks that fail to account for the interdependence of performance and availability). Specifically, we find that variables such as movie attributes and advertising expenditures, which are usually assumed to influence audiences directly, mostly influence revenues indirectly, namely through their impact on exhibitors' screen allocations. In addition, consistent with the idea that the buzz for a movie is perishable, we find that the longer is the time lag between releases, the weaker is the relationship between domestic and foreign market performance-an effect mostly driven by foreign exhibitors' screen allocations.
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