Externally validating contingent valuation: an open-space survey and referendum in Corvallis, Oregon

We ask whether respondents report the same decisions in non-binding surveys as they do in real elections. We study a Corvallis, OR referendum to raise open space funds and find survey and election compatibility pivots on the characterization of undecided responses. The survey and referendum percentage of yes votes match closely only if undecided responses are treated as no. We compare survey-based mean willingness to pay (WTP) estimates with election-based estimates. Household WTP averages US$ 48.89 using election results, while survey-based WTP averages US$ 75.43 excluding undecided responses, US$ 49.67 treating undecided responses as no, and between US$ 49.96 and 80.05. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.