期刊
ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES
卷 91, 期 2, 页码 169-185出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/S0749-5978(03)00058-X
关键词
-
Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the process-performance paradox. The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据