期刊
JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY
卷 54, 期 8, 页码 799-805出版社
PALGRAVE PUBLISHERS LTD
DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601589
关键词
electricity demand forecasting; Holt-Winters exponential smoothing
This paper considers univariate online electricity demand forecasting for lead times from a half-hour-ahead to a day-ahead. A time series of demand recorded at half-hourly intervals contains more than one seasonal pattern. A within-day seasonal cycle is apparent from the similarity of the demand profile from one day to the next, and a within-week seasonal cycle is evident when one compares the demand on the corresponding day of adjacent weeks. There is strong appeal in using a forecasting method that is able to capture both seasonalities. The multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model has been adapted for this purpose. In this paper, we adapt the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing formulation so that it can accommodate two seasonalities. We correct for residual autocorrelation using a simple autoregressive model. The forecasts produced by the new double seasonal Holt-Winters method outperform those from traditional Holt-Winters and from a well-specified multiplicative double seasonal ARIMA model.
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