A global dynamic model for the neolithic transition

During the Holocene strong gradients in the distribution of technology including subsistence ways emerged on a global scale. These patterns were further amplified in historic times and are still visible through worldwide differences in national wealth. In order to evaluate major factors responsible for the shift from foraging to food production we here employ quantitative methods by developing a deterministic but simple model. After compiling existing maps of potential vegetation at 5000 BP the inhabited world is split into 197 regions with homogeneous environmental conditions. Suitable variables for the macro-economic and cultural development in the Neolithic period are found to be farming to hunting-gathering ratio, number of agricultural economies and a technological development index. The model explicitly describes economic adaptation, growth and migration of human populations together with the spread of their cultural characteristics; it accounts for over-exploitation of natural resources, crowding mortality and the climate variability on a millennium scale. In a thorough model validation region specific trajectories are compared to archaeological evidence revealing a high correspondence. Major parts of the known sequence of Neolithic centers including the timing differences are robustly reproduced. A series of known problems in prehistory is discussed comprising the lag between domestication and full scale farming, the off-leveling of the technological boost following the transition, the emergence of distinct migration waves and sensitivity to climate fluctuations. Not mere population pressure but continuous innovation and competition between subsistence strategies is identified as a prime mover of agricultural development. The results suggest that few aspects of biogeography may have determined the observed continental gradients in the number of domesticable species ultimately leading to an increasing differentiation in technology and demography.