期刊
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
卷 20, 期 5, 页码 755-766出版社
SCIENCE PRESS
DOI: 10.1007/BF02915400
关键词
North China; climate change; seasonality; IPCCSRES A2 and B2 scenarios
This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to be strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.
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