The impact of drought on the population dynamics of canopy-tree seedlings in an aseasonal Malaysian rain forest

In the first 3 mo of 1998, an aseasonal tropical rain forest at Lambir Hills National Park on the north-west coast of Borneo suffered An unusually severe drought. Extreme climatic events such as this one are expected to influence tree population structure and community dynamics through differential effects on growth and mortality. The demographics of seedlings of seven shade-tolerant tree species, including two dipterocarps, during this severe drought were contrasted with baseline demographic data from two earlier census intervals, one of which included a slight drought, and one of which included no drought. Hemispherical photographs were used to document an opening of the canopy that resulted from the dieback and mortality of large trees during the severe 1998 drought. Seedlings that experienced an increase in canopy openness were less likely to die than other seedlings. Rates of mortality and height loss were significantly increased in association with drought. The overall mortality rates during the severe drought and slight drought census intervals were 8.2% y(-1) and 7.3% y(-1) respectively, compared with 4.9% y(-1) for the non-drought census interval. The incidence of height loss during the severe drought census interval was 27.5%, compared with rates of 11.7% and 20.1% for earlier census intervals. Dipterocarp species were less affected than some non-dipterocarp species, and the smallest seedlings suffered the greatest impact. If droughts in this region continue to increase in intensity and severity, they may ultimately cause a change in the species population densities and stand structure of the understorey seedling community of this rain forest.