Youth smoking prevalence in developing countries: effect of advertising bans

This paper examines the effect of tobacco advertising bans on youth smoking prevalence in developing countries. Despite little direct empirical analysis of this issue, public health professionals frequently propose advertising bans as a first step in dealing with youth smoking. Using a Bayesian learning model, the paper first develops a plausible mechanism for an effect of advertising bans on youth smoking. Advertising is hypothesized to alter youth perceptions of the ubiquity of smoking and the risks associated with this behavior. Using survey-based data, a cross-country linear probability model of youth smoking prevalence is estimated, including gender results, pooled results, and results by frequency of smoking (30-day, ever-smoked). Explanatory variables are included for income, demographics, advertising bans, and several other important policy variables (health warnings, prohibition of sales to minors, school classes, antismoking messages, access in retail stores). The empirical results indicate that advertising bans have no effect on youth smoking prevalence in developing countries. This result holds for complete bans as well as partial bans. Some of the results suggest that school classes and other education efforts would be effective as a means to alter or affect youth perceptions of the risks associated with smoking.