The statistical significance of the low cosmic microwave background mulitipoles

The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) has measured lower amplitudes for the temperature quadrupole and octopole anisotropies than expected in the best fitting (concordance) Lambda-dominated cold dark matter (LambdaCDM) cosmology. Some authors have argued that this discrepancy may require new physics. However, the statistical significance of this result is not clear. Some authors have applied frequentist arguments and claim that the discrepancy would occur by chance about 1 time in 700, if the concordance model is correct. Other authors have used Bayesian arguments to claim that the data show marginal evidence for new physics. I investigate these confusing and apparently conflicting claims in this Letter using a frequentist analysis and a simplified Bayesian analysis. On either analysis, I conclude that the WMAP results are consistent with the concordance LambdaCDM model.