Application of fuzzy logic to forecast seasonal runoff

Each spring in Alberta, Canada, the potential snowmelt runoff is forecast for several basins to assess the water supply situation. Water managers need this forecast to plan water allocations for the following summer season. The Lodge Creek and Middle Creek basins, located in southeastern Alberta, are two basins that require this type of late winter forecast of potential spring runoff. Historically, the forecast has been based upon a combination of regression equations. These results are then interpreted by a forecaster and are modified based on the forecaster's heuristic knowledge of the basin. Unfortunately, this approach has had limited success in the past, in terms of the accuracy of these forecasts, and consequently an alternative methodology is needed. In this study, the applicability of fuzzy logic modelling techniques for forecasting water supply was investigated. Fuzzy logic has been applied successfully in several fields where the relationship between cause and effect (variable and results) are vague. Fuzzy variables were used to organize knowledge that is expressed 'linguistically' into a formal analysis. For example, 'high snowpack', 'average snowpack' and 'low snowpack' became variables. By applying fuzzy logic, a water supply forecast was created that classified potential runoff into three forecast zones: 'low', 'average' and 'high'. Spring runoff forecasts from the fuzzy expert systems were found to be considerably more reliable than the regression models in forecasting the appropriate runoff zone, especially in terms of identifying low or average runoff years. Based on the modelling results in these two basins, it is concluded that fuzzy logic has a promising potential for providing reliable water supply forecasts. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.