期刊
STATISTICAL SCIENCE
卷 19, 期 1, 页码 44-57出版社
INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS
DOI: 10.1214/088342304000000125
关键词
Borel criterion; calibration; falsification; Jeffreys's law
This article expounds a philosophical approach to Probability and Causality: a synthesis of the personalist Bayesian views of de Finetti and Popper's falsificationist programme. A falsification method for probabilistic or causal theories, based on Borel criteria, is described. It is argued that this minimalist approach, free of any distracting metaphysical inputs, provides the essential support required for the conduct and advance of Science.
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