Simulation of Orissa super cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR mesoscale model

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate the super cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model is integrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several important fields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with the verification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The model simulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.