Metapopulation viability analysis of the bog fritillary butterfly using RAMAS/GIS

Many species living in man-shaped landscapes are restricted to small natural habitat patches and form metapopulations; predicting their future is a central issue in applied ecology. We examined the viability of the bog fritillary butterfly Proclossiana eunomia Esper, a specialist glacial relict species, in a highly fragmented landscape (<1% of suitable habitat in 10 km(2)), by way of population viability analysis. We used comprehensive data from a long-term study in which a patchy population was monitored during ten consecutive years to parameterise a spatially structured meta-population model using commercially available platform RAMAS/GIS 3.0. Population growth rate was density-dependent and modulated by various climatic variables acting on different developmental stages of the butterfly. Density dependence was probably related to larval parasitism by a specific parasitoid. Population size was negatively affected by an increase in the mean temperature. Dispersal was modelled as the observed proportion of movements between patches, taking into account the probability of emigration out of a given patch. Our model provided results close to the picture of the system drawn from the field data and was considered as useful in making predictions about the metapopulation. Demographic parameters proved to have a far higher impact on metapopulation persistence than dispersal or correlation of local dynamics. Scenarios simulating both global warming and management of habitat patches by rustic herbivore grazing indicated a decrease in the viability of the metapopulation. Our results prompted the regional nature conservation agency to modify the planned management regime. We urge conservation biologists to use structured population models including local population dynamics for viability analysis targeted to such threatened metapopulations in highly fragmented landscapes.