Nonlinear temperature response of lake ice breakup

A uniquely comprehensive set of four decades of ice breakup data from 196 Swedish lakes covering 13degrees of latitude (55.7degrees N to 68.4degrees N) shows the relationship between the timing of lake ice breakup and air temperature to be an arc cosine function. The nonlinearity inherent in this relationship results in marked differences in the response of the timing of lake ice breakup to changes in air temperature between colder and warmer geographical regions, and between colder and warmer time periods. The spatial and temporal patterns are mutually consistent, suggesting that climate change impacts on the timing of lake ice breakup will vary along a temperature gradient. This has potentially important ramifications for the employment of lake ice phenologies as climate indicators and for the future behavior of lacustrine ecosystems.