Scenarios of solid oxide fuel cell introduction into Japanese society

In this paper, strategies to successfully introduce solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) into industry and society are discussed using a scenario approach. Scenarios for Japanese energy systems are developed to portray the situation up to the year 2050, in order to consider the potential interrelation of SOFCs with other power generation technologies, and to direct further investigation and stimulate discussion among researchers and stakeholders. Scenarios are constructed by combining a number of scenario options, such as technical, social, political and economic aspects. Specific attention is focused on the lifecycle of SOFCs. A power generation planning model developed in a previous study was extended to model decision-making for power generation capacity planning based on cost minimization, subject to other constraints and requirements over the focal time period of 2001-2050. In this way, it is possible to assess for each scenario not only the feasible introduction rate of SOFCs, but also the CO2 emissions, cost, and energy security requirements for the entire energy system, including both distributed and centralized power systems. The results of the analyses elucidate the effectiveness of different technical and political alternatives, such as technological breakthrough, recycling, security of materials and production facilities, on the successful introduction of SOFCs in Japanese power systems. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.