期刊
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON CIRCUITS AND SYSTEMS I-REGULAR PAPERS
卷 51, 期 9, 页码 1733-1740出版社
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TCSI.2004.834513
关键词
blackouts; complex systems; power system security; reliability; risk analysis; time series
We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC). The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and rescaled range analysis of the time series shows moderate long-time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time series from a sandpile model known to be self-organized critical gives results of the same form. Thus, the blackout data seem consistent with SOC. A qualitative explanation of the complex dynamics observed in electric power system blackouts, is suggested.
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