期刊
ECONOMIC JOURNAL
卷 114, 期 498, 页码 844-866出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00246.x
关键词
-
类别
We consider evaluating the UK Monetary Policy Committee's inflation density forecasts using probability integral transform goodness-of-fit tests. These tests evaluate the whole forecast density. We also consider whether the probabilities assigned to inflation being in certain ranges are well calibrated, where the ranges are chosen to be those of particular relevance to the MPC, given its remit of maintaining inflation rates in a band around 21/2% annum. Finally, we discuss the decision-based approach to forecast evaluation in relation to the MPC forecasts.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据