4.5 Article

Bayesian prediction intervals and their relationship to tolerance intervals

期刊

TECHNOMETRICS
卷 46, 期 4, 页码 452-459

出版社

AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC
DOI: 10.1198/004017004000000518

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gamma distribution; Gibbs sampling; hierarchical linear model; Markov chain Monte Carlo; normal distribution; predictive density; system reliability; variance components model

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We consider Bayesian prediction intervals that contain a proportion of a finite number of observations with a specified probability. Such intervals arise in numerous applied contexts and are closely related to tolerance intervals. Several examples are provided to illustrate this methodology, and simulation studies are used to demonstrate potential pitfalls of using tolerance intervals when prediction intervals are required.

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