期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 101, 期 48, 页码 16915-16916出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0407293101
关键词
demographic stochasticity; disease dynamics; susceptible infectious recovered (SIR); immunity
资金
- NIGMS NIH HHS [1-R01-GM60729-01] Funding Source: Medline
influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
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