期刊
AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT
卷 104, 期 3, 页码 553-565出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2004.01.029
关键词
seasonal climate forecasting; water management; environmental flows; decision-making; forecast accuracy
Although the ability to forecast climatic variability has progressed significantly in recent years, there appears little use of seasonal climate forecast information in catchment water management decision-making. Forecast accuracy, or the perceived lack of forecast accuracy, is cited as a key impediment to the uptake of forecast information in decision-making despite the efforts of researchers to statistically validate forecast systems. One potential reason why accuracy remains an impediment is that decision-makers are not only concerned with statistical validity from a climatological perspective, but also with how accurately a forecast predicts impacts on variables of interest from their perspective. This paper examines this issue using a case study approach from eastern Australia to show that a forecast. which is acceptable from a climatological perspective, does not necessarily transfer into a useable forecast for decision-makers. The results show that expected outcomes differ considerably from outcomes generated using a perfect forecast. These unintended outcomes can decrease the potential for a forecast to be useful to decision-makers. It is concluded that forecast research needs to address forecast accuracy from a truer perspective to facilitate the adoption of forecast information in decision-making. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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