Risk factors for cytomegalovirus viremia and disease developing after prophylaxis in high-risk solid-organ transplant recipients

Background. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) D+/R- solid-organ transplant (SOT) recipients carry increased risk of developing CMV disease; however, other risk factors in these patients have not been delineated. Methods. We examined 20 demographic and clinical variables for their association with the development of CMV disease, as defined by an independent endpoint committee (IEC) andalso by the investigator (investigator treated [IT]), or CMV viremia within 12 months of transplant in D+/R- transplant recipients who received prophylaxis with valganciclovir or oral ganciclovir for 100 days. Results. Recipients with low creatinine clearance (C-cr,<40 mL/min) at screening had a significantly increased hazard of developing IEC-defined CMV disease (hazards ratio [HR] =4.28, confidence interval [CI] 1.69,10.83). Females were twice as likely (HR=2.19, CI.21, 3.99) to develop IEC-defined CMV disease thin males. These variables were associated with an increased risk of IEC-defined CMW disease in time-dependent models. Recipients with blood group A were also more likely to develop IEC-defined CMV disease than those with group O (HR=2.36 CI 1.24,4.51) in the logistic regression model only. Prophylactic drug, organ type, recipient age, rejection episodes, and maintenance immunosuppression regimen were not associated with IEC-defined CMV disease. Female sex was the only variable associated with the development of CMV viremia (odds ratio [OR] = 1.65; CI 1.03, 2.65) and IT CMV disease (OR= 1.78; CI 1.08,2.93). Conclusions. Low C-cr at screening and blood type A are risk factors for IEC-defined CMV disease, and female sex was a risk factor for IEC- and IT-defined CMV disease and viremia in high-risk SOT recipients. These variables should perhaps be considered when optimizing treatment.