Water resource management and drought forecasts in South Carolina

Despite potential benefits for resource planning, community water systems managers have not used seasonal climate forecasts extensively. Obstacles to forecast use include a lack of awareness of their existence, distrust of their accuracy, perceived irrelevance to management decisions, and competition from other technological innovations. In this paper, ways in which seasonal forecasts might be extended to address more directly some concerns of South Carolina community water systems managers are explored. From May 1998 through August 2002, this group experienced drought conditions that threatened water quality and supply and required restrictions on water consumption. Methods for incorporating long lead forecasts with joint probabilities of monthly temperature and precipitation to produce drought forecasts are demonstrated. When tailored to specific places, such forecasts show the likelihood of exceeding drought thresholds that would trigger water use restrictions. The methods illustrate how long lead forecasts can be extended and customized into secondary products that address issues of greater relevance to water resource managers.