A stochastic model to analyze clonal data on multi-type cell populations

This article presents a stochastic model designed to analyze experimental data on the development of cell clones composed of two (or more) distinct types of cells. The proposed model is an extension of the traditional multi-type Bellman-Harris branching stochastic process allowing for nonidentical time-to-transformation distributions defined for different cell types. A simulated pseudo likelihood method has been developed for the parametric statistical inference from experimental data on cell clones under the proposed model. The method uses simulation-based approximations of the means and the variance-covariance matrices of cell counts. The proposed estimator for the vector of unknown parameters is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal under mild regularity conditions, while its variance-covariance matrix is estimated by the parametric bootstrap. A Monte Carlo Wald test is proposed for the test of hypotheses. Finite sample properties of the estimator have been studied by computer simulations. The model and associated methods of parametric inference have been applied to the analysis of proliferation and differentiation of cultured O-2A progenitor cells that play a key role in the development of the central nervous system. It follows from this analysis that the time to division of the progenitor cell and the time to its differentiation (into an oligodendrocyte) are not identically distributed. This biological finding suggests that a molecular event determining the type of cell transformation is more likely to occur at the start rather than at the end of the mitotic cycle.