期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
卷 21, 期 2, 页码 331-340出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.08.002
关键词
bivariate Poisson; ordered probit; football match results
In the previous literature, two approaches have been used to model match outcomes in association football (soccer): first, modelling the goals scored and conceded by each team; and second, modelling win-draw-lose match results directly. There have been no previous attempts to compare the forecasting performance of these two types of model. This paper aims to fill this gap. Bivariate Poisson regression is used to estimate forecasting models for goals scored and conceded. Ordered probit regression is used to estimate forecasting models for match results. Both types of models are estimated using the same 25-year data set on English league football match outcomes. The best forecasting performance is achieved using a 'hybrid' specification, in which goals-based team performance covariates are used to forecast win-draw-lose match results. However, the differences between the forecasting performance of models based on goals data and models based on results data appear to be relatively small. (c) 2004 fntemational Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据