Counter-urbanisation on the Zambian Copperbelt? Interpretations and implications

For the past 20 years, the population of Zambia has been gradually ruralising, or de-urbanising. For a country which was once seen as emblematic of the process of African urbanisation, and was very often cited (erroneously) as being among the first in sub-Saharan Africa to have reached the stage where over half the population was urban, this is a dramatic shift. This paper has both an empirical and theoretical element. Empirically, it seeks to demonstrate the scale and pattern of the shift within Zambia through careful examination of census data which, although occasionally problematic, are generally sufficiently accurate to provide a basis for analysis. It is shown that counter-urbanisation is mainly characteristic of Copperbelt Province, but that other urban centres have also experienced a marked downturn in their growth rates. Changes in fertility and mortality rates have played a part, but the most important factor is shown to be shifts in migration patterns, with many centres clearly experiencing net out-migration, including that of some urban-born people, as a response to urban economic decline. These dynamics are also discussed theoretically in relation to longstanding debates in African urban studies about the implications of urbanisation and migration dynamics, which date back to the early days of the famous Rhodes-Livingstone Institute which was based in colonial Zambia.