期刊
APPLIED ENERGY
卷 96, 期 -, 页码 12-20出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.004
关键词
Renewable energy; Forecasting; Time trajectories; Multivariate verification; Diagnostic tools
资金
- European Commission [ENK7-CT2008-213740]
- Anemos.plus Project [ENK6-CT2006-038692]
- Danish Council for Strategic Research, Technology and Production through the Ensymora Project [10-093904/DSF]
Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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