Development of pavement permanent deformation prediction model by grey modelling method

A large number of pavement databases are available owing to the advent of laboratory facilities and pavement management systems. For pavement evaluation, some data or properties relating to the environment and structure may not be very clear and so the pavement system is grey in its nature. In addition, there are no accompanying theory and knowledge of rules for the observed behaviour of permanent deformation and traffic loading. Thus, in this study, a pavement permanent deformation prediction model (PDPM) is established based on grey system theory. The modelling method of grey system and the algorithm of prediction model are also presented, The applicability of the PDPM is verified by using permanent deformation depth obtained from the wheel-tracking device test. Field test data of permanent deformation performance is collected to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the new prediction model and to confirm the model's validity.