The application of artificial neural networks to mapping of wind speed profile for energy application in Nigeria

Modelling and prediction of wind speed are essential prerequisites in the sitting and sizing of wind power applications. The profile of wind speed in Nigeria is modelled using artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model consists of 3-layered, feed-forward, back-propagation network with different configurations, designed using the Neural Toolbox for MATLAB. The monthly mean daily wind speed data monitored at 10 m above ground level for a period of 20 years (1983-2003) for 28 ground stations operated by the Nigeria Meteorological Services (NIMET) were used as training (18 stations) and testing (10 stations) dataset. The geographical parameters (latitude. longitude and altitude) and the month of the year were used as input data, while the monthly mean wind speed was used as the output of the network. The optimum network architecture with minimum Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 8.9% and correlation coefficient (r) between the predicted and the measured wind speed values of 0.9380 was obtained. The predicted monthly wind speed ranged from 0.9-13.1 m/s with an annual mean of 4.7 m/s. The model predicted wind speed values are given in the form of monthly maps, which can be easily used for assessment of wind energy potential for different locations within Nigeria. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.