US electric industry response to carbon constraint: a life-cycle assessment of supply side alternatives

This study explores the boundaries of electric industry fuel switching in response to US carbon constraints. A ternary model quantifies how supply side compliance alternatives would change under increasingly stringent climate policies and continued growth in electricity use. Under the White House Climate Change Initiative, greenhouse gas emissions may increase and little or no change in fuel-mix is necessary. As expected, the more significant carbon reductions proposed under the Kyoto Protocol (1990-7 % levels) and Climate Stewardship Act (CSA) (1990 levels) require an increase of some combination of renewable, nuclear, or natural gas generated electricity. The current trend of natural gas power plant construction warrants the investigation of this technology as a sustainable carbon-mitigating measure. A detailed life-cycle assessment shows that significant greenhouse gas emissions occur upstream of the natural gas power plant, primarily during fuel-cycle operations. Accounting for the entire life-cycle increases the base emission rate for combined-cycle natural gas power by 22 %. Two carbon-mitigating strategies are tested using life-cycle emission rates developed for US electricity generation. Relying solely on new natural gas plants for CSA compliance would require a 600 % increase in natural gas generated electricity and almost complete displacement of coal from the fuel mix. In contrast, a 240 % increase in nuclear or renewable resources meets the same target with minimal coal displacement. This study further demonstrates how neglecting life-cycle emissions, in particular those occurring upstream of the natural gas power plant, may cause erroneous assessment of supply side compliance alternatives. (c) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.