Predictability of river flow and suspended sediment transport in the Mississippi River basin: a non-linear deterministic approach

As the Mississippi River plays a major role in fulfilling various water demands in North America, accurate prediction of river flow and sediment transport in the basin is crucial for undertaking both short-term emergency measures and long-term management efforts. To this effect, the present study investigates the predictability of river flow and suspended sediment transport in the basin. As most of the existing approaches that link water discharge, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load possess certain limitations (absence of consensus on linkages), this study employs an approach that presents predictions of a variable based on history of the variable alone. The approach, based on non-linear determinism, involves: (1) reconstruction of single-dimensional series in multi-dimensional phase-space for representing the underlying dynamics; and (2) use of the local approximation technique for prediction. For implementation, river flow and suspended sediment transport variables observed at the St. Louis (Missouri) station are studied. Specifically, daily water discharge, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load data are analysed for their predictability and range, by making predictions from one day to ten days ahead. The results lead to the following conclusions: (1) extremely good one-day ahead predictions are possible for all the series; (2) prediction accuracy decreases with increasing lead time for all the series, but the decrease is much more significant for suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load; and (3) the number of mechanisms dominantly governing the dynamics is three for each of the series. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.