Synthetic tropical cyclone database

A mathematical model capable of simulating tropical cyclone tracks and central pressure histories, over the Coral Sea, Australia, is described. The modeling approach assumes that each cyclone is an independent realization of the same underlying stochastic process. Relatively simple autoregressive models are used for the time series of latitude, longitude, and central pressure. The model is used to generate a large database of synthetic storms whose statistical characteristics are shown to simulate those of the population of real storms. Each synthetic storm can be used, in conjunction with a separately developed wind field model, to drive numerical models for computing wave heights and water levels (including storm surges) throughout the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. In this way, the sample size available for estimating extreme wave heights and water levels is greatly increased.