A comparison of populations served by kidney paired donation and list paired donation

Options for utilizing live donor kidneys from those who are blood type incompatible or crossmatch positive with their intended recipients include kidney paired donation (KPD), list paired donation (LPD) and desensitization. KPD provides live donor kidneys for both recipients but requires a match to another incompatible pair, while LPD utilizes the deceased donor pool but is restricted by ethical and logistic concerns. We simulated patients and their potential donors to determine which recipients could receive a kidney through KPD and LPD. With smaller populations (100 pairs or fewer), more kidneys were matched through LPD, although the greatest benefit was derived from a combination of LPD and KPD. With increasing population sizes, more patients were matched through KPD, including almost all patients who would have been eligible for LPD. At population sizes predicted to be achieved by a national paired donation system, the role of LPD became minimal, with only 3.9% of pairs unmatched through KPD eligible for LPD. Considerable overlap was seen between the pairs unmatchable by KPD and those ineligible for LPD, namely less-demanded donors and hard-to-match recipients. For this population, the best option may be desensitization.