Accelerating impacts of temperature-induced coral bleaching in the Caribbean

Coral bleaching is a stress-related response that can be triggered by elevated sea surface temperatures (SST). Recent increases in the frequency of coral bleaching have led to concerns that increases in marine temperatures may threaten entire coral reef regions. We report exponential increases in the geographical extent and intensity of coral bleaching in the Caribbean with increasing SST anomalies. A rise in regional SST of 0.1 degrees C results in 35% and 42% increases in the geographic extent and intensity of coral bleaching, respectively. Maximum bleaching extent and intensity are predicted to occur at regional SST anomalies of less than + 1 degrees C, which coincides with the most conservative projections for warming in the Caribbean by the end of the 21st century. Coral bleaching is therefore likely to become a chronic source of stress for Caribbean reefs in the near future.