Postoperative lactate concentrations predict the outcome of infants aged 6 weeks or less after intracardiac surgery: A cohort follow-up to 18 months

Objectives: An observational cohort study was conducted in infants less than 6 weeks of age undergoing intracardiac surgery to examine the predictive value of serial postoperative lactate determination on survival and early childhood neurodevelopment. Methods: A total of 85 infants with congenital heart disease underwent intracardiac surgery between 1996 and 1999. Differences in serial lactate concentrations after surgery among 3 outcome groups were compared. The predictive value of plasma lactate concentration on outcome (1) at discharge from initial hospitalization and (2) 18 to 24 months postnatal age was examined. Results: Compared with survivors, the nonsurvivors had higher lactate concentrations on admission to the pediatric intensive care unit at day 1 peak and area under the curve of the lactate profile than those of adverse and intact survivors (all P < .001, analysis of variance). Significant differences in the time for lactate concentrations to return to 2 mmol/L or less during the first postoperative day were observed among the groups: nonsurvivors > adverse survivors > intact survivors. Lactate concentrations of less than 7 mmol/L on admission or less than 8 mmol/L at day 1 peak predicted survival with 82% sensitivity and 83% specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 97% and 43%, respectively (P < .001, X-2). Plasma lactate concentrations were associated with adverse outcome but had lower predictive values compared with that for nonsurvival. Conclusions: Serial lactate determination accurately predicts survival and may help differentiate survivors with adverse outcome from those with intact neurodevelopment in early childhood.