Prognostic factors for long-term outcome after percutaneous thermal ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a survival analysis of 137 consecutive patients

AIM: To identify prognostic factors for long-term outcome for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after percutaneous microwave or radiofrequency ablation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In total, 137 consecutive patients with HCC underwent microwave or radiofrequency ablation with curative intent; 16 possible prognostic factors were evaluated for their association with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) using univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The median OS and DFS were 27.0 months and 8.2 months, respectively. OS rates for all patients at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years were 73.9%, 52.1%, 42.8%, 26.2% and 20.1%, respectively. DFS rates at 1, 2, 3 and 4 years were 38.1%, 21.9%, 18.8%, and 14.1%, respectively. Pretreatment serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >200 ng/ml, pretreatment serum albumin <= 35 g/dl, liver function Child's class C and incomplete ablation were found to be significant predictors for OS by univariate analysis. Using multivariate analysis, incomplete ablation was identified to be the most significant independent predictor for OS. Other independent predictors for OS were serum albumin level, serum AFP level and Child-Pugh classification. Recurrence after hepatectomy and prothrombin time > 14 s were identified to be significant predictors for DFS by univariate analysis, and the former was the only independent predictor for DFS by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Prognosis for patients with HCC after thermal ablation with curative intent was determined by treatment response to ablation, pretreatment serum AFP, and Liver function reserve. Tumour response to treatment was the most predictive factor for long-term survival and was related to tumour size, thus careful selection of patients for ablation therapy is recommended. (C) 2005 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.