期刊
JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY
卷 56, 期 11, 页码 1241-1249出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601967
关键词
maintenance; replacement; infrastructure networks; semi-Markov
Considerable benefits have been gained from using Markov decision processes to select condition-based maintenance policies for the asset management of infrastructure systems. A key part of the method is using a Markov process to model the deterioration of condition. However, the Markov model assumes constant transition probabilities irrespective of how long an item has been in a state. The semi-Markov model relaxes this assumption. This paper describes how to fit a semi-Markov model to observed condition data and the results achieved on two data sets. Good results were obtained even where there was only 1 year of observation data.
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