The future of the red metal - scenario analysis

A regional copper scenario model has been developed from the perspective of the generic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the four world regions: OECD90, ASIA, REF, and ALM. A set of three scenarios: Tech World, Green World, and Trend World, each representing the significant driving forces influencing population and economic growth, technological change and environmental consciousness, is presented. Intensities of copper use converge in the long-term in the Tech and Green World as GDP per capita level approaches $100,000. Global copper use, currently 15 Tg Cu/yr, is expected to rise to 30-130 Tg Cu/yr by the year 2100. The rate of copper use in the ASIA and ALM regions exceeds the copper use in the OECD90 and REF regions beyond 2020. A Green World corresponds to per capita global copper use of 4 kg Cu/(capita-yr) as compared to the contemporary global level of 2.6 and 10 kg Cu/(capita-yr) in developed regions, symbolizing the sustainability theme. For the OECD90 region, the results are more sensitive to the copper intensity of use variable whereas for ASIA and ALM regions, variations in GDP per capita can influence copper use. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.