A visual index for estimating cone production for individual white spruce trees

The number of cones produced by coniferous trees is commonly estimated by visual counts from the ground of a portion of the tree multiplied by a simple conversion factor. Linear conversion factors have been used to estimate total cone production by white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). However, these conversion factors originate from other coniferous species and were often based on assumptions of cone visibility within the crown and not on empirical data. We propose a simple method for estimating the total number of cones produced by individual white spruce. We counted visible cones (an index of cone production, or cone index) on a total of 60 trees located in Alberta and Yukon, Canada, that were then felled and all cones were counted. We found that log(actual total cones) = 0.073 + 1.189 x log(cone index) is more accurate for estimating total cone numbers for white spruce than are other conversion factors (ranging from total cones = 1.5 x cone index to total cones = 3.35 x cone index), as determined using Akaike's information criterion with small sample bias adjustment and a validation data set. The relationship between the index of cone production and actual total cones produced is nonlinear, which is contrary to that proposed for various Pinus species.